About

Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Is a Recession Imminent?

Definition of a Recession: The textbook definition of a recession is two quarters of negative GDP growth. Some examples of recessions in...

Sunday, 15 April 2018

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 16

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2656, 1.99%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
10481, 1.44%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3159, 0.89%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1348, 0.88%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
67.39, 8.59%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
3.07, 0.41%
Neutral
Neutral
Baltic Dry Index
993, 4.20%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.2344, 0.42%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
107.35, 0.41%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
10370, 2.20%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
36.16, 1.18%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.78%, 1.24%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
113, 262.20%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
17.41, -18.99%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
126
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2649, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2690, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2599, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10243, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
10400, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
10216, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
14.14, -4.12%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
65.20, 0.48%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
11
13
Bearish Indications
2
1
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish.
The markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Australia – RBA minutes, Employment data, New Zealand – CPI, China – Industrial production, GDP, Euro Zone – German ZEW economic sentiment, CPI, UK- Employment data, CPI, Retail sales, U.S – Retail sales, Oil inventories, Canada – BOC rate decision, CPI, Retail sales   
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals april 16
Chart courtesy David Rosenberg 

The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Indian market volatility is still well below US market volatility as the nifty is close to resistance while the US market is close to major support so there is complacency and some catch up left on the down side in India. The critical levels to watch are 2670 (up) and 2645 (down) on the S & P and 10550 (up) and 10400 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


Wednesday, 11 April 2018

Stock Market - The Good, The Bad and The Ugly


The good first:

The market seems to be holding the 200 DMA despite excessive bearishness and negative vibes surrounding the trade war with China and the special counsel investigation involving president Trump:

spx 200 dma

The bad:
Valuations are still in the stratosphere and market volatility is on the rise:
spx Q ratio

Chart courtesy Jill Mislinski via Advisor Perspectives

spx vix chart


The ugly:
If the market where to break support here near the 200 DMA there is loads of downside ahead and parallels to earlier market melt downs are well worth watching:

spx comparison

Chart courtesy David Rosenberg:

stock market good bad and ugly
Image from imdb.com

Sunday, 8 April 2018

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 09

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2605, -1.38%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
10332, 2.15%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3131, -0.93%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1336, 0.66%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
62.06, -4.43%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
3.06, 1.09%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
953, -11.76%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.2293, -0.12%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
106.91, 0.47%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
10146, -2.41%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
35.74, 0.11%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.78%, 1.24%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
31, 100.91%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
21.49, 7.61%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
122
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2679, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2710, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2594, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10222, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
10464, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
10195, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
14.75, -6.41%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
64.89, -0.21%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
4
4
Bearish Indications
9
9
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The S and P 500 fell and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bearish.
The markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Euro Zone – ECB monetary policy minutes, U.S – PPI, CPI, Oil inventories, FOMC minutes
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals april 09

The S and P 500 fell and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bearish for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The yen and other safe haven asset classes are flashing warning signs. Indian market volatility is still well below US market volatility as the nifty is close to resistance while the US market is at major support so there is complacency and some catch up left on the down side in India. The critical levels to watch are 2615 (up) and 2590 (down) on the S & P and 10400 (up) and 10250 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.