About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 23 July 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning July 24


Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2473, 0.54%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
9915, 0.28%
Neutral **
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
3238, 0.48%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1255, 2.23%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
45.77, -1.65%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.72, 1.17%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
964, 8.56%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1661, 1.69%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
111.13, -1.23%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
9471, -2.79%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
37.32, 0.35%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.23%, -3.75%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
728, 22.48%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
9.36, -1.58%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
135
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2441, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2427, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2314, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
9720, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
9628, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8905, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
11.09, -0.78%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
64.46, 0.31%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty


Bullish Indications
10

11

Bearish Indications
3
3

Outlook
Bullish
Bullish

Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty made new highs last week. Indicators are bullish.
The market is in unchartered territory. Time to tighten those stops.


On the Horizon
Russia – Rate decision, UK - GDP, Australia – CPI, Euro Zone – PMI, German IFO business index, Rate decision, U.S –Oil inventories, Existing and new home sales, Consumer confidence, Durable goods, FOMC rate decision, GDP, Canada – GDP  






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral




stock market signals july 24

The S and P 500 and the Nifty made new highs last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. Transports and the Yen are flashing warning signs. Market internals are flashing major warning signs of a large decline ahead. The critical levels to watch are 2485 (up) and 2460 (down) on the S & P and 10000 (up) and 9850 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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Cash - 40%
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Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.