About

Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Sunday 1 April 2018

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 02

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2641, 2.03%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
10114, 1.16%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3160, 0.25%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1327, -1.67%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
64.94, -1.43%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
3.03, 1.09%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
1080, -3.31%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.2304, -0.42%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
106.41, 1.52%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
10397, 2.29%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
35.70, 0.65%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.74%, -3.14%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
16, -88.01%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
19.97, -19.70%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
119
Neutral
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2704, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2730, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2589, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10245, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
10518, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
10180, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
15.76, 1.37%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
65.03, 0.01%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
8
8
Bearish Indications
6
8
Outlook
Bearish
Neutral
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty bounced back last week. Indicators are mixed.
The markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Australia – RBA rate decision, Retail sales,  Japan – Tankan survey, China – PMI, Euro Zone – CPI, German PMI, UK – PMI’s, Carney speech, U.S – ISM PMI, Oil inventories, Employment data, Powell speech, Canada – PMI, Employment data,  India – RBI rate decision
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals april 02
Image from marketwatch.com 
The S and P 500 and the Nifty rebounded last week. Indicators are mixed for the upcoming week. Given the extremely bearish sentiment and the 200 DMA hold a short term bottom is likely in and the rally may prolong till 2700 before the bears take over again. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The yen and other safe haven asset classes are flashing warning signs. Indian market volatility is still well below US market volatility so there is complacency and some catch up left on the down side. The critical levels to watch are 2650 (up) and 2630 (down) on the S & P and 10200 (up) and 10000 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Sunday 25 March 2018

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 26

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2588, -5.95%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
9998, -1.93%
Neutral **
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3153, -3.58%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1350, 2.87%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
65.88, 5.56%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.99, -3.68%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
1117, -2.87%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.2357, 0.50%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
104.81, -1.15%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
10163, -4.87%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
35.62, -0.97%
Bearish
Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.83%, -0.63%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
129, -54.44%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
24.87, 57.41%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
131
Neutral
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2724, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2742, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2585, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10306, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
10549, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
10173, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
15.55, 2.14%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
65.02, -0.10%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
5
4
Bearish Indications
11
14
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish.
The markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
China – PMI, Euro Zone – German employment data, UK – GDP, U.S – Consumer Confidence, Home sales, Oil inventories, GDP, Canada – GDP
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals march 26


The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell hard last week. Indicators are bearish for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The yen and other safe haven asset classes are flashing warning signs. Indian market volatility is still well below US market volatility so there is complacency and some catch up left on the down side. The critical levels to watch are 2600 (up) and 2575 (down) on the S & P and 10100 (up) and 9900 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.